In a comprehensive technical analysis rooted in Elliott Wave Theory, CMT-certified analyst Tony Severino presents a classic five-wave impulsive pattern that appears to have concluded near the $85,000 level. Severino explains that the current decline to $74,000 marks the beginning of a broader ABC corrective wave, which could ultimately drive Bitcoin’s price much lower—toward the $38K–$42K range.
Next Bitcoin Bottom on the Horizon?
Severino’s wave analysis begins with Wave 1, starting from the bear market low, followed by a corrective Wave 2. Wave 3 represented the strongest bullish phase, subdividing into five smaller waves (i to v). After a brief pullback in Wave 4, Wave 5 surged to a peak near $85,000.
Now, according to Severino, the market has entered its ABC correction phase, illustrated in red on his charts. He projects that Wave A of this correction will likely bottom between $62,000 and $65,000 by June 2025—an area that aligns with the previous Wave 4 correction zone, which often acts as a retracement target.
The more significant concern, however, lies in what comes next. Following a brief recovery in Wave B, the analyst expects a steeper drop in Wave C, ultimately bringing Bitcoin to a final low between $38,000 and $42,000 by April 2026. This zone also aligns with the sub-wave iv of the previous Wave 3, a common retracement level in Elliott Wave corrections.
Severino’s analysis suggests that Bitcoin has now entered a bear market phase. His model incorporates cyclical timing patterns, pointing to a full market cycle: a bull market peak in 2025 followed by a bear market extending through mid-2026. This aligns with Bitcoin’s historical four-year halving cycle, where prices tend to peak the year after a halving before correcting.
Death Cross Emerges on Bitcoin Chart
Adding to bearish sentiment, BarChart reports on X (formerly Twitter) that Bitcoin has recently formed a Death Cross—the first since September 2024. This bearish signal occurs when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average, often indicating a potential downtrend ahead.
With Bitcoin trading at approximately $78,900 at the time of reporting, the appearance of a Death Cross suggests further downside and market consolidation may be imminent.